France begins the race for the Élysée Palace
As the presidential election looms, a former journalist who has been convicted for inciting hatred, joins the race and becomes the top contender to challenge Marine Le Pen, leader of the more established far-right National Rally, for a place in a second round against President Emmanuel Macron, who still has not confirmed if he’s running for a second term in office.
Four months before the presidential elections in France, Emmanuel Macron appears as the big favorite with 25% of intention to vote according to the latest polls, although the current president has not yet officially confirmed his candidacy for a second term.
Macron’s strategy seems to be to gain time against his eventual rivals and to reinforce the positive aspects of his administration as head of state before entering into the cumbersome pre-campaign discussions that the rest of the candidates already participate in.
In his last television speech, the French president chose to highlight the country’s economic recovery, with unemployment at its all-time low and GDP growth of 3% in the last quarter comparable to that of pre-pandemic levels. However, concerns about the health situation remain dormant, aggravated by the upturn in coronavirus infections and the eventual spread of Omicron, the new variant detected in South Africa.
The French government has already announced the availability of a booster vaccine for all adults and the extension of the health passport needed to access bars, restaurants and museums, as well as hospitals and nursing homes, except in emergency situations. With 74.5% of adults vaccinated with the complete scheme, France shows successful immunization levels with respect to the rest of Europe.
While polls predict a victory for Macron in the second round, Marine Le Pen remains his main rival as in 2017. The 53-year-old extreme right-wing leader maintains her heated discourse against immigration and insecurity, although, in an attempt to increase her constituency and soften her image, she abandoned the idea of taking France out of the European Union.
The far-right leader risks being overtaken in her extremism by the rising figure of Éric Zemmour, a controversial television commentator, famous for his provocations about Islam, immigration and his anti-feminism, positions for which he was repeatedly sued and twice convicted of incitement to racial hatred. After months of preparations, the journalist has just launched his candidacy on social networks under the slogan: “It is no longer the time to reform France, but to save it”.
It is likely that the confirmation of Zemmour’s participation in the elections will have an impact on the primaries of the Republicans held this Saturday. The candidacy of the centre-right party, the main ideological rival of the ruling party of Macron, will be decided among 6 candidates, among which three stand out: Michel Barnier, former minister and negotiator of Brexit, Xavier Bertrand, President of the Hautes-de-France region and Valérie Pécresse, President of the Paris region. The conservative group seeks to close ranks against a single candidate and be reborn from the defeat suffered in 2017.
Also participating in the presidential race to the Elysée are left-wing populist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 10% intention to vote according to polls; Yannik Jadot, an environmentalist MEP, leader of the Green Party, with 7% of the electorate’s preferences and Anne Hidalgo, the current socialist mayor of Paris, with 4%. With the dichotomy between social democracy and conservatism mortally wounded in 2017 by the irruption of Macron, 5 months after the presidential elections nothing is said in the French electoral scenario.